A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study

Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. tested two approaches to aggregate those curves into global curve respectively using: enveloping Monte-Carlo simulations. implemented this approach earthen reliability several flood return periods the Bow River in Calgary, Canada. used limit equilibrium estimate safety factor segment simulations sliding probabilities. Terzaghi's critical hydraulic gradient erosion The required expert judgment. discussed how choice area consideration steady state or transient model impact results showed our study case that, even though is closer representation reality, saturation parameter has little on values, extension, aggregated more realistic than envelop mechanisms equivalent computation time.